Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +180 DREX -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -3.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -4.1 (-4.9) | 143.1 (-16.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -5.3 (-3.7) | 143.3 (-16.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -4.1 (-4.9) | 140.7 (-13.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -3.6 (-5.4) | 140.9 (-13.9) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DREX 61 – 60 NCAT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | DREX 62 – 47 NCAT |
| Jan 12, 2024 | DREX 67 – 63 NCAT |
| Jan 27, 2023 | NCAT 68 – 55 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#314) | -1.5 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#336) | -0.39 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#339) | -0.55 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#333) | 0.462 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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