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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–44 on winners spread MAE 9.9 131 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iona @ Manhattan +4.0 153.3 64% 55–76 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis -0.8 146.0 47% 71–63 ✓
Brown @ Pennsylvania -1.1 142.4 46% 88–79 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia +7.9 150.4 76% 90–82 ✗
Dartmouth @ Cornell +13.1 165.8 88% 64–76 ✓
Akron @ Kent State +0.8 140.6 53% 85–71 ✗
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac +14.6 148.0 91% 69–81 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack +10.1 128.4 82% 66–58 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider -1.7 118.3 44% 64–67 ✗
Niagara @ Canisius -3.0 142.8 39% 64–63 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +12.6 145.9 87% 76–81 ✓
Siena @ Marist +4.4 130.2 66% 67–72 ✓
Florida @ Tennessee +2.8 137.7 60% 44–64 ✓
Providence @ St. John's +14.0 143.1 90% 66–68 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest -4.7 138.1 34% 74–76 ✗
Washington @ Minnesota +3.0 135.3 61% 71–68 ✗
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +13.5 142.5 89% 72–74 ✓
Missouri @ Mississippi State +4.5 153.6 66% 88–61 ✗
Arizona @ Arizona State -6.0 148.5 29% 81–72 ✓
Le Moyne @ Wagner +3.3 134.0 62% 61–73 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +2.1 175.4 57% 83–67 ✗
Creighton @ Villanova +1.1 147.6 54% 62–60 ✗
Georgia State @ App State +12.9 137.5 88% 76–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +4.3 144.7 65% 57–67 ✓
Hofstra @ Campbell +1.7 126.4 56% 52–75 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +11.8 147.0 86% 68–87 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +16.7 145.3 94% 56–82 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -17.6 148.5 5% 83–58 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan +3.3 152.1 62% 54–61 ✓
Clemson @ NC State -5.8 135.7 30% 68–58 ✓
Auburn @ Ole Miss -7.4 150.8 25% 92–82 ✓
Kansas State @ Iowa State +17.9 149.8 95% 80–61 ✗
Wisconsin @ Northwestern -2.9 145.5 40% 75–69 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford +14.2 152.6 90% 69–79 ✓
High Point @ Presbyterian -7.4 147.5 25% 84–72 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +5.6 162.9 69% 93–96 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -3.5 147.7 37% 85–89 ✗
Charlotte @ UAB +11.1 157.3 84% 78–96 ✓
East Carolina @ Temple +4.8 150.6 67% 94–98 ✓
Florida State @ Boston College -7.8 149.4 24% 76–77 ✗
Massachusetts @ Duquesne +6.2 146.8 71% 62–53 ✗
Drake @ Southern Illinois -6.3 128.1 28% 75–65 ✓
Bucknell @ Navy +3.1 145.6 61% 85–75 ✗
Lafayette @ Colgate +7.3 137.3 75% 76–61 ✗
Army @ American University +5.7 146.2 70% 68–71 ✓
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland +1.9 129.6 57% 67–69 ✓
Long Island University @ Chicago State -3.9 129.8 36% 67–73 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Stonehill -3.9 126.8 36% 71–63 ✓
Maine @ Vermont -3.6 122.5 37% 49–55 ✗
Bryant @ NJIT -11.4 143.9 15% 92–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +10.6 146.0 83% 84–79 ✗
Delaware @ Monmouth +1.1 158.6 54% 83–92 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -9.0 159.6 21% 75–80 ✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga +8.3 158.6 77% 84–93 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +17.2 155.6 94% 85–89 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Loyola Chicago -3.3 145.5 38% 55–58 ✗
George Washington @ La Salle -1.1 147.4 46% 67–73 ✗
Howard @ Hampton +2.1 151.1 57% 79–80 ✓
Utah @ Oklahoma State -3.3 149.1 38% 72–81 ✗
Murray State @ Missouri State -3.2 140.5 38% 56–77 ✗
Indiana State @ UIC +12.1 172.1 86% 88–83 ✗
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin -0.7 123.9 47% 67–62 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State +2.0 145.1 57% 72–49 ✗
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington +9.4 150.0 80% 71–73 ✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +5.5 145.0 69% 68–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky +3.9 140.6 64% 69–101 ✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M -3.9 134.0 36% 50–72 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Oklahoma +1.5 156.7 55% 67–97 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +7.8 158.8 76% 63–79 ✓
Michigan @ Rutgers -6.7 161.5 27% 66–63 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Fairleigh Dickinson +7.9 143.8 76% 67–60 ✗
VMI @ Western Carolina -4.6 144.6 34% 80–76 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) +4.0 160.9 64% 69–73 ✓
Louisville @ Georgia Tech -10.0 149.3 18% 70–77 ✗
Georgia @ Alabama +10.3 160.6 83% 69–90 ✓
Kansas @ Baylor +0.1 148.7 50% 70–81 ✓
Fresno State @ Boise State +21.7 154.8 98% 60–82 ✓
BYU @ UCF -2.9 163.3 40% 81–75 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +4.3 122.5 65% 75–74 ✗
Richmond @ VCU +18.5 133.4 95% 49–90 ✓
George Mason @ Davidson -2.2 137.5 42% 64–60 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State +8.2 162.1 77% 63–76 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +5.2 145.4 68% 71–87 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado +8.5 155.0 78% 69–87 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +12.3 141.1 87% 54–68 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +11.2 138.0 85% 62–67 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +7.4 126.2 75% 84–75 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +17.8 130.7 95% 66–73 ✓
Austin Peay @ Eastern Kentucky +8.0 145.9 77% 82–88 ✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech +7.6 151.4 75% 61–66 ✓
Michigan State @ USC -6.1 149.3 29% 64–70 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +8.2 143.9 77% 65–67 ✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State -6.6 140.5 27% 84–61 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +3.0 142.4 61% 69–67 ✗
McNeese @ Nicholls -8.9 142.8 21% 63–71 ✗
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +14.7 145.6 91% 68–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Southern Miss +3.8 153.8 63% 68–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +17.2 135.8 94% 50–87 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana +0.9 146.6 53% 78–65 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Illinois -6.0 129.6 29% 69–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood +3.4 135.8 62% 76–70 ✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +6.3 154.4 72% 87–89 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +8.5 151.2 78% 78–86 ✓
Air Force @ San José State +9.9 135.5 82% 64–75 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +7.3 144.8 75% 49–69 ✓
Arkansas State @ Texas State -3.8 150.0 36% 85–74 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +24.4 144.2 99% 80–87 ✓
Ball State @ Buffalo -1.8 152.6 43% 89–76 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -3.0 136.3 39% 61–72 ✗
Florida International @ Kennesaw State +8.8 147.9 79% 67–73 ✓
Jackson State @ Grambling +2.0 139.7 57% 65–50 ✗
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman +5.0 143.6 67% 64–67 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley -1.5 155.6 44% 73–83 ✗
Texas Tech @ Houston +10.7 131.2 84% 82–81 ✗
UTSA @ North Texas +16.0 140.2 93% 54–50 ✗
Stanford @ SMU +6.4 155.2 72% 61–85 ✓
Harvard @ Cornell +12.8 155.6 88% 60–75 ✓
Yale @ Pennsylvania -13.5 147.8 11% 90–61 ✓
Alcorn State @ Southern +13.0 131.5 88% 69–74 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +7.9 160.5 76% 95–89 ✗
Sacramento State @ Montana +11.0 137.9 84% 59–87 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +2.8 140.5 60% 64–74 ✓
Drexel @ Towson +4.0 125.8 64% 54–55 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +9.2 164.6 80% 81–78 ✗
Texas @ LSU -0.9 147.7 47% 89–58 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -5.6 141.1 31% 78–62 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +5.3 133.4 68% 74–62 ✗
UT Martin @ Little Rock +7.0 135.1 74% 57–75 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +16.8 149.8 94% 70–87 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +14.4 153.0 90% 79–76 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M +9.1 150.2 80% 79–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.