I'm going to Wichita, far from this opera for evermore. "Seven Nation Army" - The White Stripes
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–14 on winners spread MAE 10.9 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Binghamton @ UAlbany +6.9 148.1 74% 65–61 ✗
Stony Brook @ UNC Wilmington +17.3 141.6 94% 70–80 ✓
Northeastern @ Elon +5.7 140.3 70% 60–71 ✓
Pacific @ Santa Clara +20.3 151.4 97% 49–83 ✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan +7.6 143.3 76% 71–90 ✓
UConn @ Marquette +5.9 149.3 70% 77–69 ✗
Notre Dame @ Miami -6.6 158.7 28% 57–63 ✗
Wyoming @ San Diego State +15.2 126.5 92% 61–63 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +4.9 143.3 67% 73–74 ✓
South Alabama @ Louisiana -8.7 133.2 21% 62–58 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge +10.9 154.7 84% 62–88 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +7.2 167.4 74% 62–80 ✓
Southern Utah @ Tarleton State +0.4 129.9 51% 58–75 ✓
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon +6.9 147.5 73% 57–75 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts -3.5 142.8 38% 67–73 ✗
Denver @ Omaha +11.9 147.8 86% 69–78 ✓
Texas A&M @ South Carolina -7.0 131.5 26% 76–72 ✓
Arkansas @ Kentucky +10.6 159.2 83% 89–79 ✗
Central Arkansas @ North Alabama +17.1 149.0 94% 65–94 ✓
New Mexico @ Utah State +6.6 162.9 73% 82–63 ✗
Syracuse @ California +4.9 156.9 67% 75–66 ✗
UNLV @ Nevada +5.9 135.6 70% 65–71 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara +12.3 134.7 87% 54–85 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine +12.0 153.3 86% 84–64 ✗
Washington State @ San Francisco +5.8 152.0 70% 51–75 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -0.6 149.9 48% 58–62 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +11.4 138.7 85% 57–82 ✓
Ohio State @ Illinois +7.0 157.6 74% 79–87 ✓
Fairfield @ Iona +7.0 142.5 74% 64–87 ✓
West Virginia @ Cincinnati +1.9 123.0 57% 63–50 ✗
Tulsa @ Tulane +11.8 143.9 86% 56–59 ✓
South Florida @ Florida Atlantic +8.6 158.1 78% 72–94 ✓
Robert Morris @ Wright State +2.8 155.2 60% 64–66 ✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State +4.1 139.1 65% 69–72 ✓
Manhattan @ Sacred Heart +2.4 163.9 59% 72–74 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Peter's +3.9 123.5 64% 79–64 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Siena -0.6 144.1 48% 75–84 ✗
Memphis @ Rice -11.1 144.4 16% 86–83 ✓
Evansville @ Belmont +11.7 149.4 86% 80–75 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee +4.7 160.3 67% 81–79 ✗
Colorado @ TCU +5.2 133.9 68% 57–68 ✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa +0.4 141.1 52% 69–83 ✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +1.7 161.8 56% 62–79 ✓
Merrimack @ Rider -5.3 124.9 32% 66–64 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul +6.9 138.3 73% 57–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.