Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -320 CP +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -7.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -6.0 (+12.0) | 156.5 (-14.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -7.8 (+10.2) | 159.0 (-17.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -8.1 (+9.9) | 155.2 (-13.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -6.0 (+12.0) | 157.2 (-15.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | CP 94 – 87 UCR |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCR 88 – 84 CP |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CP 96 – 83 UCR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CP 112 – 100 UCR |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UCR 84 – 78 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#165) | -3.9 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#77) | -0.54 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#107) | -0.78 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#69) | 0.470 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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