Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | CP +100 UCR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +12 | 212 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -0.9 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.2 (+45.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -0.1 (+11.9) | 159.0 (+53.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -1.0 (+13.0) | 159.9 (+52.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.5 (+12.5) | 160.2 (+51.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.5 (+12.5) | 160.7 (+51.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | CP 94 – 87 UCR |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCR 88 – 84 CP |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CP 96 – 83 UCR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UCR 80 – 62 CP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UCR 84 – 78 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#218) | 0.8 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#210) | 1.12 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#210) | 0.93 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#240) | 0.561 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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