Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -225 CP +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +13 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -2.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -2.0 (-15.0) | 166.7 (+12.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.7 (-15.7) | 165.4 (+13.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -3.4 (-16.4) | 163.7 (+15.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -2.4 (-15.4) | 165.4 (+13.6) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | CP 94 – 87 UCR |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCR 88 – 84 CP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CP 112 – 100 UCR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UCR 80 – 62 CP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UCR 84 – 78 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#145) | -1.2 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#82) | -0.11 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#104) | -0.21 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#53) | 0.488 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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