Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -120 CP +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +7 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -1.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.8 (-8.8) | 154.6 (+26.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -1.0 (-8.0) | 153.8 (+27.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.9 (-7.9) | 153.9 (+27.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -1.1 (-8.1) | 153.7 (+27.3) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCR 88 – 84 CP |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CP 96 – 83 UCR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CP 112 – 100 UCR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UCR 80 – 62 CP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UCR 84 – 78 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-15 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 85.3 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#281) | -6.0 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#243) | -0.88 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#226) | -1.21 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#226) | 0.456 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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