Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | CP -250 UCR +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | CP -7.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -4.4 (-8.4) | 150.5 (+21.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -4.3 (-8.3) | 149.2 (+22.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -4.4 (-8.4) | 148.7 (+23.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CP -4.1 (-8.1) | 151.2 (+20.8) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | CP 94 – 87 UCR |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CP 96 – 83 UCR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CP 112 – 100 UCR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UCR 80 – 62 CP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UCR 84 – 78 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.3 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#194) | -4.7 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#157) | -0.69 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#186) | -0.73 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#131) | 0.452 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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