Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -280 OSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -7.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -7.4 (+0.6) | 159.3 (+6.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.0 (+3.0) | 158.1 (+7.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.4 (+2.6) | 157.0 (+9.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.7 (+2.3) | 157.7 (+8.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ILL 69 – 60 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#7) | 17.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#36) | 2.39 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#31) | 3.68 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#43) | 0.593 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 45.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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