Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | OSU +155 ILL -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -0.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -0.6 (+11.4) | 144.6 (-12.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -0.9 (+11.1) | 140.9 (-8.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -0.1 (+11.9) | 144.5 (-12.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -0.2 (+11.8) | 145.1 (-13.1) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ILL 69 – 60 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#54) | 12.8 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#121) | 2.08 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#94) | 2.55 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#185) | 0.566 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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