Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | OSU +136 ILL -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -2.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.2 (-7.8) | 151.7 (+16.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.9 (-7.1) | 150.4 (+17.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -0.3 (-8.3) | 149.1 (+18.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.1 (-7.9) | 151.5 (+16.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ILL 69 – 60 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#41) | 19.9 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#59) | 2.51 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#54) | 4.02 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#67) | 0.618 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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