Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -250 OSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -5.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.7 (-2.7) | 151.9 (-0.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.6 (-2.6) | 152.0 (-1.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.6 (-2.6) | 152.8 (-1.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -4.9 (-1.9) | 150.7 (+0.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ILL 69 – 60 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#14) | 11.3 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#14) | 1.63 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#9) | 2.16 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#16) | 0.562 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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