Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -175 OSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -2.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.9 (+6.1) | 147.2 (-18.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.9 (+5.1) | 144.3 (-15.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.8 (+5.2) | 146.2 (-17.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.3 (+5.7) | 147.2 (-18.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#25) | 14.1 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#39) | 1.24 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#39) | 1.94 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#74) | 0.538 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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