Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | OSU +125 ILL -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +12 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -3.7 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.1 (-10.9) | 148.0 (+14.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.3 (-9.7) | 144.7 (+17.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.2 (-9.8) | 146.8 (+15.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.1 (-9.9) | 147.1 (+14.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2023 | ILL 69 – 60 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#61) | 16.4 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#79) | 2.27 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#77) | 3.00 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#78) | 0.610 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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