Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -600 UVU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -7.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -8.1 (+9.9) | 145.9 (-13.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -6.7 (+11.3) | 146.2 (-14.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -6.3 (+11.7) | 146.1 (-14.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.4 (+12.6) | 147.4 (-15.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 16, 2025 | GCU 89 – 82 UVU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UVU 72 – 64 GCU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | GCU 86 – 67 UVU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | GCU 78 – 65 UVU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | UVU 76 – 74 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 15-1 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-0 |
| Away | 5-4 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#91) | 2.4 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#84) | 0.90 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#91) | 0.75 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#104) | 0.555 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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