Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UVU +140 GCU -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -1.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -0.0 (+8.0) | 141.5 (-5.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -0.7 (+7.3) | 139.3 (-3.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -0.8 (+7.2) | 140.7 (-4.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -0.6 (+7.4) | 144.8 (-8.8) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 16, 2025 | GCU 89 – 82 UVU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | GCU 75 – 57 UVU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | GCU 86 – 67 UVU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | GCU 78 – 65 UVU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | UVU 76 – 74 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 13-3 |
| Home | 12-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#140) | 4.3 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#150) | 1.05 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#158) | 1.00 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#155) | 0.543 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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