Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UVU +170 GCU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +19 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -6.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -5.5 (-13.5) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -6.3 (-12.7) | 140.4 (+12.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -6.5 (-12.5) | 140.2 (+12.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -6.5 (-12.5) | 141.5 (+11.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 16, 2025 | GCU 89 – 82 UVU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | GCU 75 – 57 UVU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UVU 72 – 64 GCU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | GCU 78 – 65 UVU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | UVU 76 – 74 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#186) | 9.0 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#195) | 2.63 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#179) | 3.00 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#176) | 0.606 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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