Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -360 USF +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +22 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -8.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -7.5 (+14.5) | 153.2 (+12.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -7.2 (+14.8) | 150.2 (+15.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -7.3 (+14.7) | 151.2 (+14.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -7.2 (+14.8) | 153.1 (+12.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | USF 83 – 81 FAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | USF 89 – 75 FAU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | FAU 69 – 63 USF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | USF 90 – 86 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#109) | -1.9 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#135) | -0.50 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#122) | -0.68 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#98) | 0.469 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.