Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USF +188 FAU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +4 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -4.9 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -3.7 (+7.7) | 145.5 (+30.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -1.9 (+5.9) | 144.8 (+31.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -1.7 (+5.7) | 145.3 (+30.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -2.0 (+6.0) | 145.1 (+30.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | USF 83 – 81 FAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | USF 89 – 75 FAU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | FAU 69 – 63 USF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | FAU 94 – 72 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#105) | 13.2 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#69) | 2.14 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#94) | 2.56 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#59) | 0.607 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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