Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | USF -265 FAU +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | USF -5.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -5.0 (+9.0) | 159.8 (+4.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -5.3 (+8.7) | 156.6 (+7.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -5.5 (+8.5) | 157.8 (+6.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -5.2 (+8.8) | 159.6 (+4.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | USF 83 – 81 FAU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | FAU 69 – 63 USF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | FAU 94 – 72 USF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | USF 90 – 86 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#62) | 7.2 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#89) | 1.27 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#77) | 1.57 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#67) | 0.588 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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