Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | USF +130 FAU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -2.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -1.5 (-4.5) | 152.5 (-20.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -1.4 (-4.6) | 150.1 (-18.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -1.6 (-4.4) | 152.8 (-20.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -1.3 (-4.7) | 153.1 (-21.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | USF 83 – 81 FAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | USF 89 – 75 FAU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | FAU 94 – 72 USF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | USF 90 – 86 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#199) | 3.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#212) | 0.47 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#208) | 0.61 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#232) | 0.531 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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