Betting Lines
| Spread | MILW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | MILW -195 PFW +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | MILW -4.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MILW -5.0 (-7.0) | 154.5 (+5.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MILW -3.5 (-5.5) | 152.9 (+7.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MILW -4.3 (-6.3) | 155.4 (+4.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MILW -4.9 (-6.9) | 156.0 (+4.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | PFW 100 – 82 MILW |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MILW 77 – 55 PFW |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PFW 78 – 73 MILW |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MILW 96 – 88 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MILW 68 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#117) | 1.7 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#122) | 0.19 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#111) | 0.43 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#84) | 0.523 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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