Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -166 MILW +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +18 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -2.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -2.5 (+15.5) | 143.5 (+38.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -1.6 (+16.4) | 143.6 (+38.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -2.0 (+16.0) | 145.4 (+36.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -2.5 (+15.5) | 144.0 (+38.0) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | MILW 77 – 55 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2025 | PFW 81 – 79 MILW |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PFW 78 – 73 MILW |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MILW 96 – 88 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MILW 68 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#244) | -4.3 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#151) | -0.64 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#194) | -0.97 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#164) | 0.467 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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