Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -155 MILW +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -5.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -3.5 (+1.5) | 153.1 (-2.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -2.3 (+2.7) | 149.9 (+1.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -3.8 (+1.2) | 153.1 (-2.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -3.4 (+1.6) | 154.1 (-3.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | PFW 100 – 82 MILW |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MILW 77 – 55 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2025 | PFW 81 – 79 MILW |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MILW 96 – 88 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MILW 68 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#122) | 1.1 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#139) | 0.54 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#122) | 0.69 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#119) | 0.530 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 15.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 42.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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