Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | MILW -111 PFW -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MILW +8 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -2.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -2.1 (+10.1) | 155.7 (+28.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -1.3 (+9.3) | 154.6 (+29.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -2.3 (+10.3) | 154.3 (+29.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -2.3 (+10.3) | 154.8 (+29.2) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | PFW 100 – 82 MILW |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MILW 77 – 55 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2025 | PFW 81 – 79 MILW |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PFW 78 – 73 MILW |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MILW 68 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#253) | 1.4 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#228) | -0.20 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#266) | -0.05 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#211) | 0.478 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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