Betting Lines
| Spread | MILW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MILW -162 PFW +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MILW +22 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MILW -2.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MILW -1.2 (+20.8) | 154.8 (-22.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MILW -1.6 (+20.4) | 151.1 (-19.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MILW -1.4 (+20.6) | 152.1 (-20.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MILW -0.8 (+21.2) | 153.6 (-21.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | PFW 100 – 82 MILW |
| Feb 2, 2025 | PFW 81 – 79 MILW |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PFW 78 – 73 MILW |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MILW 96 – 88 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MILW 68 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#225) | -2.7 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#218) | 0.38 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#232) | 0.06 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#203) | 0.528 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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