Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -240 SUU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -0.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -1.2 (+15.8) | 130.8 (+2.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -0.6 (+16.4) | 130.0 (+3.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -0.7 (+16.3) | 131.1 (+1.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.8 (+16.2) | 132.0 (+1.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TAR 78 – 74 SUU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | TAR 62 – 59 SUU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SUU 106 – 105 TAR |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TAR 74 – 66 SUU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | TAR 88 – 83 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-12 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#311) | -6.5 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#251) | -1.10 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#264) | -1.30 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#252) | 0.431 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 26.0% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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