Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SUU -105 TAR -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +3 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -4.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-39.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.7 (-0.3) | 150.4 (-29.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -3.1 (+0.1) | 148.8 (-27.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -2.3 (-0.7) | 148.6 (-27.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -2.5 (-0.5) | 150.4 (-29.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TAR 78 – 74 SUU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SUU 106 – 105 TAR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TAR 75 – 58 SUU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TAR 74 – 66 SUU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | TAR 88 – 83 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#301) | -1.8 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#251) | -0.34 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#254) | -0.09 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#281) | 0.460 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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