Free Nelson Mandela! "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Western Athletic Conference · America First Events Center · March 3, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TAR -4.5 Away covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money SUU +210 / TAR -200
Model Predictions
Spread Total SUU win
Actual TAR +5 171 Lost
Massey TAR -2.6 (-2.4)
Massey Totals 150.6 (+20.4)
Bradley-Terry 13%
Weighted B-T 14%
Efficiency Plus ML TAR -2.2 (-2.8) 149.9 (+21.1) 34%
Baseline Tuned ML TAR -3.5 (-1.5) 148.2 (+22.8) 32%
Baseline ML TAR -3.7 (-1.3) 150.0 (+21.0) 34%
Baseline Plus ML TAR -3.3 (-1.7) 150.8 (+20.2) 33%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 20, 2026 TAR 7874 SUU
Feb 8, 2026 TAR 6259 SUU
Jan 16, 2026 SUU 106105 TAR
Feb 2, 2025 TAR 7558 SUU
Jan 10, 2025 TAR 7466 SUU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SUU TAR
Overall 10-21 25-10
Conference 5-15 16-4
Home 6-8 13-4
Away 3-13 10-5
Neutral 1-0 2-1
Last 5 0-5 5-0
Streak W1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.2 72.6
Avg Pts Against 77.8 70.2
Massey -4.0 (#245) 1.9 (#139)
Bradley-Terry -1.17 (#293) 1.33 (#78)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.06 (#269) 1.40 (#93)
RPI 0.437 (#300) 0.566 (#63)
Shooting & Four Factors SUU TAR
FG% 43.3% 44.4%
3PT% 28.8% 33.9%
REB / G 33.3 32.5
OREB / G 10.2 10.3
AST / TO 0.94 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.3% 49.5%
TOV% 16.6% 17.2%
ORB% 27.8% 30.4%
FT Rate 27.0% 23.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 17.2% 20.5%
DRB% 66.2% 66.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.9% 26.2%

Game Analysis

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