Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SUU +210 TAR -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +5 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -2.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -3.3 (-1.7) | 150.8 (+20.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -2.2 (-2.8) | 149.9 (+21.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -3.5 (-1.5) | 148.2 (+22.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -3.7 (-1.3) | 150.0 (+21.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TAR 78 – 74 SUU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | TAR 62 – 59 SUU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SUU 106 – 105 TAR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TAR 75 – 58 SUU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TAR 74 – 66 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#245) | 1.9 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#293) | 1.33 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#269) | 1.40 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#300) | 0.566 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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