Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SUU +154 TAR -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +1 | 211 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -10.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+51.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -10.3 (+11.3) | 146.9 (+64.1) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -9.0 (+10.0) | 146.8 (+64.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -9.8 (+10.8) | 148.1 (+62.9) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -9.9 (+10.9) | 148.0 (+63.0) | 19% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TAR 78 – 74 SUU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | TAR 62 – 59 SUU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TAR 75 – 58 SUU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TAR 74 – 66 SUU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | TAR 88 – 83 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#339) | 1.0 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#339) | 0.62 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.43 (#343) | 0.83 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#343) | 0.530 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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