Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +270 ND -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +6 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | ND -6.6 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (-39.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -7.4 (+13.4) | 153.6 (-33.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -6.0 (+12.0) | 149.1 (-29.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -7.1 (+13.1) | 152.5 (-32.5) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -7.7 (+13.7) | 154.7 (-34.7) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | MIA 81 – 69 ND |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MIA 73 – 61 ND |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MIA 62 – 49 ND |
| Dec 30, 2022 | MIA 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ND 68 – 64 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#209) | 7.2 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#325) | 0.36 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#294) | 0.94 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#294) | 0.509 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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