Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ND +188 MIA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +12 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -5.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -4.1 (-7.9) | 137.2 (-3.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -4.7 (-7.3) | 134.8 (-0.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -5.1 (-6.9) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -4.6 (-7.4) | 135.1 (-1.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | MIA 81 – 69 ND |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MIA 63 – 57 ND |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MIA 62 – 49 ND |
| Dec 30, 2022 | MIA 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ND 68 – 64 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#156) | 9.8 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#200) | 1.60 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#188) | 2.00 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#180) | 0.560 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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