Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ND +115 MIA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +11 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -3.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -4.2 (-6.8) | 145.4 (-4.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -2.2 (-8.8) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.9 (-7.1) | 146.5 (-5.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.4 (-7.6) | 149.4 (-8.4) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | MIA 81 – 69 ND |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MIA 63 – 57 ND |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MIA 73 – 61 ND |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MIA 62 – 49 ND |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ND 68 – 64 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-8 | 16-1 |
| Away | 0-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#164) | 8.4 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#177) | 3.16 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#132) | 3.62 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#166) | 0.626 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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