In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
Atlantic Coast Conference · Purcell Pavilion · January 14, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MIA -5.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money ND +180 / MIA -218
Model Predictions
Spread Total ND win
Actual MIA +12 150 Lost
Massey MIA -3.3 (-8.7)
Massey Totals 148.6 (+1.4)
Bradley-Terry 40%
Weighted B-T 39%
Efficiency Plus ML MIA -1.8 (-10.2) 139.3 (+10.7) 50%
Baseline Tuned ML MIA -1.7 (-10.3) 139.6 (+10.4) 45%
Baseline ML MIA -1.3 (-10.7) 142.8 (+7.2) 49%
Baseline Plus ML MIA -0.9 (-11.1) 141.4 (+8.6) 46%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 2, 2025 MIA 6357 ND
Jan 25, 2024 MIA 7361 ND
Dec 2, 2023 MIA 6249 ND
Dec 30, 2022 MIA 7665 ND
Feb 3, 2022 ND 6864 MIA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ND MIA
Overall 13-18 26-9
Conference 4-14 13-5
Home 10-7 15-3
Away 2-9 8-2
Neutral 1-2 3-4
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 74.5 81.5
Avg Pts Against 75.3 71.3
Massey 8.6 (#73) 15.4 (#32)
Bradley-Terry 1.66 (#63) 2.66 (#32)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.40 (#59) 3.51 (#33)
RPI 0.574 (#63) 0.575 (#61)
Shooting & Four Factors ND MIA
FG% 45.5% 51.7%
3PT% 37.2% 34.8%
REB / G 38.2 40.1
OREB / G 11.1 13.1
AST / TO 1.05 1.64
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.3% 57.5%
TOV% 17.7% 15.9%
ORB% 32.9% 39.4%
FT Rate 23.3% 26.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.0% 48.4%
Opp TOV% 14.4% 19.8%
DRB% 76.3% 73.1%
Opp FT Rate 23.2% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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