Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ND +180 MIA -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -3.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.9 (-11.1) | 141.4 (+8.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.8 (-10.2) | 139.3 (+10.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.7 (-10.3) | 139.6 (+10.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.3 (-10.7) | 142.8 (+7.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2025 | MIA 63 – 57 ND |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MIA 73 – 61 ND |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MIA 62 – 49 ND |
| Dec 30, 2022 | MIA 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ND 68 – 64 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#73) | 15.4 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#63) | 2.66 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#59) | 3.51 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#63) | 0.575 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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