Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -200 ND +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -4.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -4.4 (-8.4) | 141.7 (-9.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -2.6 (-6.6) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.5 (-8.5) | 141.6 (-9.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -4.6 (-8.6) | 142.0 (-10.0) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | MIA 81 – 69 ND |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MIA 63 – 57 ND |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MIA 73 – 61 ND |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MIA 62 – 49 ND |
| Dec 30, 2022 | MIA 76 – 65 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 10-2 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#73) | 7.0 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#38) | 1.51 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#42) | 1.78 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#35) | 0.569 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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