Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -1400 ND +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +13 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -17.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-34.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -12.0 (+1.0) | 141.4 (-30.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -13.9 (-0.9) | 143.7 (-32.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -10.6 (+2.4) | 142.6 (-31.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -11.4 (+1.6) | 142.1 (-31.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | MIA 81 – 69 ND |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MIA 63 – 57 ND |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MIA 73 – 61 ND |
| Dec 30, 2022 | MIA 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 3, 2022 | ND 68 – 64 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#65) | -4.1 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#43) | 0.19 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#40) | 0.22 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#29) | 0.552 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 43.1% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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