Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | EKU -400 APSU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +6 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -7.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -5.8 (+0.2) | 148.4 (+21.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -5.9 (+0.1) | 149.3 (+20.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -5.6 (+0.4) | 146.0 (+24.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -5.5 (+0.5) | 148.0 (+22.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | APSU 90 – 82 EKU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | APSU 74 – 72 EKU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APSU 97 – 90 EKU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | APSU 83 – 79 EKU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | EKU 69 – 59 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#218) | -8.0 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#222) | -0.94 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#200) | -1.24 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#219) | 0.459 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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