Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | EKU -175 APSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -0.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.5 (+11.5) | 139.4 (-11.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -1.8 (+8.2) | 140.9 (-12.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.2 (+12.2) | 139.2 (-11.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -2.0 (+12.0) | 140.0 (-12.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | APSU 90 – 82 EKU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | APSU 74 – 72 EKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | EKU 88 – 82 APSU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APSU 97 – 90 EKU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | APSU 83 – 79 EKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#287) | -2.2 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#312) | -0.35 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#324) | -0.58 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#301) | 0.497 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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