Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | EKU +114 APSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +8 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -3.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -1.3 (-6.7) | 146.9 (+25.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -3.5 (-4.5) | 144.2 (+27.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -3.5 (-4.5) | 145.9 (+26.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -3.5 (-4.5) | 146.7 (+25.3) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | APSU 74 – 72 EKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | EKU 88 – 82 APSU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APSU 97 – 90 EKU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | APSU 83 – 79 EKU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | EKU 69 – 59 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#260) | 0.4 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#290) | 0.28 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#285) | 0.16 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#272) | 0.527 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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