Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -345 EKU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -10.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -7.6 (-5.6) | 152.0 (-6.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -10.2 (-8.2) | 146.8 (-0.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -10.2 (-8.2) | 147.0 (-1.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -10.0 (-8.0) | 148.1 (-2.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | APSU 90 – 82 EKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | EKU 88 – 82 APSU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APSU 97 – 90 EKU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | APSU 83 – 79 EKU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | EKU 69 – 59 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 83.1 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#153) | -6.7 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | -1.08 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#165) | -1.54 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#157) | 0.468 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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