Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +130 EKU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -2.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -1.1 (+2.9) | 147.8 (+14.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.5 (+1.5) | 148.0 (+14.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -2.7 (+1.3) | 151.5 (+10.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -2.9 (+1.1) | 152.6 (+9.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | APSU 90 – 82 EKU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | APSU 74 – 72 EKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | EKU 88 – 82 APSU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APSU 97 – 90 EKU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | EKU 69 – 59 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#225) | -2.8 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#209) | -0.15 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#223) | -0.39 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#183) | 0.510 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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