Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +120 EKU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +7 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -1.9 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+49.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -2.2 (+9.2) | 142.6 (+44.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -2.4 (+9.4) | 142.3 (+44.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -2.1 (+9.1) | 140.2 (+46.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -1.8 (+8.8) | 141.9 (+45.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | APSU 90 – 82 EKU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | APSU 74 – 72 EKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | EKU 88 – 82 APSU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | APSU 83 – 79 EKU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | EKU 69 – 59 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#303) | -2.9 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#279) | -0.72 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#281) | -0.86 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#257) | 0.470 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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