Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -290 DREX +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +1 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -4.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -5.1 (-4.1) | 130.7 (-21.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -3.9 (-2.9) | 130.2 (-21.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -4.8 (-3.8) | 128.9 (-19.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -4.8 (-3.8) | 129.0 (-20.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | DREX 68 – 62 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2026 | TOW 59 – 58 DREX |
| Mar 9, 2025 | TOW 82 – 76 DREX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOW 93 – 82 DREX |
| Jan 26, 2024 | TOW 70 – 67 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#174) | -2.1 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#126) | -0.46 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#143) | -0.61 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#99) | 0.472 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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