Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -130 TOW +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +11 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -6.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (+53.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -3.5 (-14.5) | 128.5 (+46.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -4.1 (-15.1) | 126.8 (+48.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -3.4 (-14.4) | 123.1 (+51.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -3.8 (-14.8) | 125.4 (+49.6) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | DREX 68 – 62 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2026 | TOW 59 – 58 DREX |
| Mar 9, 2025 | TOW 82 – 76 DREX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOW 55 – 54 DREX |
| Jan 26, 2024 | TOW 70 – 67 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#170) | -3.3 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#188) | -0.19 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#186) | -0.41 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#221) | 0.515 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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