Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | TOW +100 DREX +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -0.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -0.3 (+3.3) | 130.9 (+6.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -0.4 (+3.4) | 130.6 (+6.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -0.5 (+3.5) | 127.6 (+9.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.1 (+2.9) | 130.6 (+6.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | DREX 68 – 62 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2026 | TOW 59 – 58 DREX |
| Mar 9, 2025 | TOW 82 – 76 DREX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOW 55 – 54 DREX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOW 93 – 82 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#152) | 5.1 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#147) | 0.76 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#154) | 0.84 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#146) | 0.538 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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