Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -190 DREX +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -1.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -2.7 (+3.3) | 130.4 (+27.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -2.7 (+3.3) | 129.6 (+28.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -2.5 (+3.5) | 130.9 (+27.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -2.5 (+3.5) | 131.3 (+26.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | DREX 68 – 62 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2026 | TOW 59 – 58 DREX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOW 55 – 54 DREX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOW 93 – 82 DREX |
| Jan 26, 2024 | TOW 70 – 67 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#155) | -1.4 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#114) | -0.31 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#122) | -0.37 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#64) | 0.488 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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