Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | DREX +130 TOW -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -0.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.6 (+6.6) | 131.2 (-1.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.7 (+7.7) | 130.8 (-0.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.4 (+6.4) | 127.3 (+2.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.2 (+6.2) | 130.1 (-0.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | TOW 59 – 58 DREX |
| Mar 9, 2025 | TOW 82 – 76 DREX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOW 55 – 54 DREX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOW 93 – 82 DREX |
| Jan 26, 2024 | TOW 70 – 67 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#225) | -0.4 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#226) | -0.11 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#225) | -0.15 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#223) | 0.523 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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