Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -135 CREI +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -0.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.2 (-2.2) | 142.9 (-20.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -1.3 (-3.3) | 140.2 (-18.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -0.8 (-2.8) | 140.9 (-18.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -0.1 (-1.9) | 140.6 (-18.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2023 | VILL 68 – 66 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#55) | 13.6 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#108) | 2.32 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#92) | 2.76 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#125) | 0.608 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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