Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CREI +114 VILL -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -3.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -2.6 (-8.4) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -2.7 (-8.3) | 141.1 (+7.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.6 (-8.4) | 141.9 (+7.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -3.3 (-7.7) | 141.8 (+7.2) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2023 | VILL 68 – 66 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#77) | 14.3 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#75) | 2.85 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#76) | 3.70 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#79) | 0.617 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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