Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -200 VILL +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -2.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -3.5 (+3.5) | 146.7 (+18.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -3.3 (+3.7) | 147.0 (+18.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -3.0 (+4.0) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -2.8 (+4.2) | 148.2 (+16.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2023 | VILL 68 – 66 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#77) | 9.2 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#83) | 0.62 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#82) | 0.89 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#78) | 0.525 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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